Introduction
The UEFA Champions League quarter-finals are upon us, and the matchups couldn’t be more compelling. From elite European giants to tactical innovators, this stage features not just footballing excellence, but also the nuances that data can unveil.
In this preview, we break down all four ties through a combination of advanced metrics, radar charts, seasonal performance trends, and injury updates. Whether you’re a fan, a coach, or a data enthusiast, this analysis will give you the edge in understanding what could decide each clash.
Key Insights
- Bayern Munich vs Inter
- Bayern leads in offensive production, but Inter excels in transitions and wide-play structure.
- Defensively, Inter concedes fewer quality chances on counterattacks than Bayern.
- Key absentees for Bayern (Musiala, Neuer, Upamecano) could shift the balance.
- Arsenal vs Real Madrid
- Real Madrid dominates in xG metrics and ball possession, but Arsenal is superior in pressing and shot suppression.
- Arsenal’s xG consistency contrasts with Madrid’s reliance on clutch moments.
- Injuries in both squads, especially Tchouaméni (Real) and Havertz (Arsenal).
- Barcelona vs Borussia Dortmund
- Barcelona shows a possession-dominant attack with heavy use of dribbling; Dortmund relies on direct wing play.
- Defensively, Dortmund is vulnerable to high turnovers-Barcelona may exploit this.
- Dortmund’s recent form under Kovac shows signs of revival, despite a rough Bundesliga season.
- PSG vs Aston Villa
- PSG dominates nearly every offensive and defensive metric; Villa’s only edge is set-piece efficiency.
- The difference in domestic league intensity (Premier League vs Ligue 1) frames the data trends.
- Both teams are nearly at full strength-expect a tactical chess match despite the numbers.
Bayern Munich vs Inter
Offensive Radar – Bayern vs Inter
Starting with the offensive radar, which compares Bayern Munich’s Bundesliga performance with Inter’s Serie A data, it becomes immediately clear how Bayern dominates most metrics. One notable disparity lies in total dribbles per 90 minutes, where Bayern leverages individual brilliance, while Inter focuses more on structured team play. The Nerazzurri are particularly effective down the flanks, excelling in open play crosses-an area where they outperform Bayern.
Defensive Radar – Bayern vs Inter
Defensively, the matchup is more balanced. Bayern excels in counter-pressing efficiency, leading the Bundesliga in both GPI and GPE, which measure counterpressing intensity and success. Inter, on the other hand, shows defensive solidity by limiting the quality of opponent chances, as shown by their lower xG conceded per shot. They also marginally outperform Bayern in xG conceded from counterattacks and high turnovers, reflecting their structured and disciplined defensive setup.
Seasonal Trends
Looking at Bayern’s recent form, they come into this fixture with only one defeat in the last 14 matches. In terms of expected goals (xG), they have been outperformed only twice-against Mainz (defeat) and Bayer Leverkusen (draw). This reflects their attacking prowess and intent to control games.
Inter’s trend reveals a recent 2–2 draw against Parma, despite leading 0–2 at halftime. They haven’t lost in six matches, with their last defeat coming against Juventus. Notably, in games where Inter generated fewer xG than their opponents, they failed to win-losing two and drawing two. This suggests that when their attacking engine stalls, they struggle to capitalize on limited chances.
Injury Report
Injuries play a major role in this matchup. Bayern’s defense is severely weakened, missing Neuer, Upamecano, Ito, Davies, and Guerreiro. Pavlovic is doubtful in midfield, while star attacker Musiala is confirmed out for the first leg. Inter are not at full strength either: Denzel Dumfries, having a standout scoring season, is sidelined along with Taremi and Zielinski. Bastoni is expected to start, providing a crucial left-footed outlet for Inzaghi’s build-up. Calhanoglu is fit but not fully at 100%, while Lautaro has just returned to action and could still be building match sharpness. Dimarco is likely to start from the bench.
Arsenal vs Real Madrid
Offensive Radar – Arsenal vs Real Madrid
This radar comparison shows two evenly matched offensive profiles. Real Madrid leads in overall xG per 90 minutes, xG per shot, and total shots per match, reflecting their direct and efficient approach. They also excel in possession metrics such as ball possession and field tilt, and favor individual creativity through frequent dribbles. Arsenal, by contrast, stand out in xG from set pieces and open play crosses, reflecting their structured and versatile attacking play.
Defensive Radar – Arsenal vs Real Madrid
On the defensive end, Arsenal holds an edge. Mikel Arteta’s side demonstrates superior pressing and counter-pressing numbers, leading in GPI, GPE, PPDA, and BDP. Their ability to restrict opponents to low xG per shot further highlights the effectiveness of their defensive shape.
Seasonal Trends
Despite a recent dip in xG production, Arsenal have remained dominant in terms of xG superiority in most matches. Only Newcastle and Liverpool managed to outperform them, during a tough stretch with four winless games against strong opposition. This resilience speaks to their tactical consistency and balance.
Real Madrid’s season has been more inconsistent. Although coming off a loss to Valencia, their overall schedule has been lighter in terms of xPt difficulty. The difference in league intensity-Premier League vs La Liga-is evident in the visual trend data. Madrid often wins matches even when underperforming in xG, such as against Real Sociedad, Villarreal, and Celta Vigo. This ability to grind out wins despite statistical disadvantages highlights their reliance on individual brilliance and clutch performances.
Injury Report
Both teams are managing notable absences. Arsenal are missing key names like Gabriel, Calafiori, Havertz, and Jesus, with Sterling suspended and Saka just coming back from a significant hamstring injury. For Real Madrid, Militao, Carvajal, Mendy, and the suspended Tchouaméni are unavailable-potentially weakening both flanks and midfield stability.
Barcelona vs Borussia Dortmund
Offensive Radar – Barcelona vs Borussia Dortmund
Barcelona’s radar reveals a more dynamic and possession-oriented attacking profile. They dominate in dribbles and xG creation across most situations, although their xG from set pieces and high turnovers has room for improvement. Dortmund’s offense is more wing-oriented, performing better in terms of crosses and dribbles per 90 minutes, indicating a more direct style.
Defensive Radar – Barcelona vs Borussia Dortmund
Defensively, Barcelona again comes out on top, leading in nearly every metric. Both sides struggle with xG conceded per shot, but Dortmund is especially vulnerable when dealing with high turnovers, conceding significant chances in those moments.
Seasonal Trends
Barcelona enters the tie in strong form, with 11 positive results out of their last 12 matches. Even their loss to Atlético Madrid was undeserved based on xG. They’ve consistently created more than their opponents, failing to win only when they didn’t outperform them in xG-versus Osasuna, Real Sociedad, and Celta Vigo.
Borussia Dortmund, on the other hand, are enduring one of their worst domestic seasons in recent years, currently sitting 8th. However, under Niko Kovac, appointed eight matchdays ago, their xG production has improved significantly. They come into this match with two consecutive wins and four victories in their last six, reflecting a recent upswing in form.
Injury Report
Barcelona are missing Casadò and Dani Olmo, while Iñigo Martínez remains in doubt. Dortmund will be without German international Schlotterbeck and suspended midfielder Gross, with the former absence significantly hampering their ability to progress the ball from the back
PSG vs Aston Villa
Offensive Radar – PSG vs Aston Villa
A glaring disparity emerges in the offensive radar. PSG dominates across almost all metrics, with Aston Villa only surpassing them in xG from set pieces. The Parisians are elite in xG creation across open play, counterattacks, and high turnovers, showcasing their fluid, possession-heavy, and individually talented style. The only area they lag is in open-play crosses per 90 minutes, which might reflect a tactical choice rather than a performance issue.
Defensive Radar – PSG vs Aston Villa
Defensively, PSG again holds the upper hand, with only minor struggles in xG conceded from high turnovers. Aston Villa’s pressing numbers-specifically PPDA and BDP-indicate a medium-to-low pressing team that lacks effectiveness. This could be a concern against PSG’s high-octane attack. The only area where Villa performs close to their rivals is xG conceded from set pieces, which could neutralize one of PSG’s few offensive weaknesses.
Seasonal Trends
The contrast in fixture difficulty is evident once more, with Aston Villa’s Premier League campaign far more grueling than PSG’s Ligue 1 schedule. PSG is unbeaten domestically and have just been confirmed champions after a nine-game win streak. In each match, they’ve either matched or outperformed their opponents in xG.
Villa’s trend is more volatile, showing inconsistent performance. They haven’t won a single game where their xG was lower than the opposition’s. Their xG production appears to follow a pattern of streaky highs and lows, though recent form suggests they’re on an upward trajectory with two wins and improved xG creation.
Injury Report
This is the most complete matchup in terms of squad availability. PSG is only missing Marquinhos due to suspension, while Aston Villa will be able to field their best lineup.
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