{"id":16065,"date":"2021-08-10T11:39:25","date_gmt":"2021-08-10T09:39:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/soccerment.com\/?p=16065"},"modified":"2024-06-14T12:44:14","modified_gmt":"2024-06-14T12:44:14","slug":"relationship-goals","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/soccerment.com\/it\/relationship-goals\/","title":{"rendered":"Relationship goals and painful breakups"},"content":{"rendered":"

For a forward, finding the right chemistry with a strike partner is a fundamental part of the game. It often makes the difference between a solid, reliable attack and a stagnant one. Sometimes, the synergies created by the partnerships are such that breaking them is really painful, for fans as well as for the coaches. Think of Messi and Suarez, Lukaku and Lautaro, Mbapp\u00e9 and Neymar, or Kane and Son: losing one of them doesn’t just mean losing a star player, it means losing synergies too. In this analysis we look into what attacking partnerships work together the best and pose the biggest threat to opponents. We also try to understand whether players’ complementarity positively influences the pairs’ offensive output.<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n
<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Introduction and methodology<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Creating xG, together<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

In this report, we wanted to analyse the relationship and complementarity between attacking partners. Do the world’s most renowned strikers share their chances or do they just finish? Does having very different skillsets help or hinder a partnership’s attacking output? Which pairs are outperforming their Expected Goals the most?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Methodology: “Exchanged xG”<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

As part of our dataset, we analysed 16,240 different pairs of players<\/strong> who have produced at least one shot between them since the 2017\/18 season. We have only used pairs who played in the top 5 leagues<\/strong> and have at least 1,000 minutes<\/strong> on the pitch together. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

We also looked at the data for the past season (2020\/21), reviewing 6,432 pairs of players from the top 5 leagues who played together for at least 900 minutes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To measure the relationship between two players we have used so-called “exchanged xG”<\/strong>, which is essentially the Expected Goals produced exclusively by the two players forming the pair (a pass from player B that leads to a shot from player A and vice versa<\/strong>). The data regarding Expected Goals comes from our internal Expected Goals model.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For our comparisons, we have used exchanged xG on a per 90 minute basis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the next few days we will publish a post detailing all the internally developed advanced metrics, like Expected Goals, Expected Assists, xPass and a simple advanced metric with a funky name: “xOVA<\/em>“. Watch this space!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

So, who are the best pairs in Europe?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Who creates the most?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Crunching through our data, there were a couple of clear candidates for the title of “best pair in world football”. Perhaps to no-one’s surprise, such an award would probably be given to Kylian Mbapp\u00e9 and Neymar Jr.<\/strong> <\/a>The PSG<\/a> pair have created between them 19.7 xG, scoring 21 goals. Their style of play, characterised by Neymar’s superior technical skills, vision and dribbling, allied to Mbapp\u00e9’s frightening speed, dribbling and finishing, make the pair extremely synergic on the pitch, leading to an impressive 0.50 xG P90<\/strong> between just themselves (that is, excluding all other PSG players), which is significantly above the second-placed pair. This high-influx of chances has been transformed into 0.53 goals P90.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
This “pizza chart” shows the output for different performance indicators. The best performer for each category will cover the entire slice of pizza. Metrics such as through balls and through balls received or crosses and headed shots share a degree of complementarity.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n

Lionel Messi<\/strong> and Luis Su\u00e1rez<\/strong> have been considered one of the best attacking partnerships in world football for many years, fueled by their excellent chemistry on and off the pitch. This view is confirmed by the data, which reports an average of 0.36 xG P90<\/strong> (only behind the PSG pair) that they have converted into 0.41 goals P90. These two best friends have the highest amount of total xG and goals produced as a pair (26.1 xG and 30 goals respectively) thanks to their successful partnership at Barcelona<\/a>, which saw them work their magic together for several successful seasons. The Argentine also fares very well alongside wonderkid<\/em> Ansu Fati<\/a><\/strong>, producing 0.32 xG P90 <\/strong>together.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To complete the podium, perhaps surprisingly, we have Kostas Mitroglou<\/strong> and Dimitri Payet<\/strong><\/a>. Unlike the other two pairs, who tended to share creating and finishing duties quite evenly, chance creation here is very one-sided: Payet has provided Mitroglou with 97% of the 4.1 xG produced as a pair. Their average of 0.35 xG P90<\/strong> (converted into 0.43 goals P90) is extremely impressive, even if it has come from just over 1,000 minutes of play.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Luis Muriel<\/strong> and Ruslan Malinovskyi<\/strong><\/a> were one of the biggest surprises of the 2020\/21 season. Not only have they produced a very high 0.32 xG P90<\/strong> across their two seasons at Atalanta<\/a>, but they have also consistently overperformed their xGs, with an average of 0.43 goals P90. Their partnership is definitely one to watch for the following season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n
<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Who scores the most out of the pairs?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n
\n

Out of all the pairs we have looked at, who are the most prolific? Once again, the duo of Mbapp\u00e9 and Neymar<\/strong> are the clear winners, thanks to 0.53 goals P90<\/strong>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In second place, we have Coutinho and Gnabry<\/a><\/strong>, who at Bayern Munich scored 0.43 goals P90<\/strong> as a pair. To complete the podium, we again have the duo of Mitroglou and Payet,<\/strong> who have also scored 0.43 goals P90<\/strong> as a pair. Curiously, Muriel<\/strong> features in both the fourth and fifth placed pairs with 0.42 goals P90<\/strong>. He and Alejandro “Papu” Gomez<\/a><\/strong>, have scored triple the amount of goals as their exchanged xG (0.14), with Muriel and Malinovskyi<\/strong> rounding off the top 5 for produced xG. The Ukranian is fitting in increasingly well at Atalanta, providing a high influx of chances to the forwards, usually Zapata<\/a> and Muriel, who all share good chemistry on the pitch.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n
<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Performance vs xG<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

When evaluating player performance, it is important to observe the relationship between the goals scored by the pair and their relative xG. While players may consistently outperform or underperform Expected Goals, the two values tend to converge eventually. In this sense, a player could have an exceptional season with a very strong performance versus xG followed by a very poor season. For example, Timo Werner<\/a><\/strong> scored 28 goals from 20.9 xG in 2019\/20, while in the following season he managed just 6 from 12.6 xG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the scatter plot below, we have captured the most significant duos for both xG production and outperformance of xG. While PSG’s star duo are in a league of their own when it comes to exchanged xGs P90 (0.50) and goals scored P90 (0.53), their performance versus xG is in line with the average (Mbapp\u00e9 tends to outperform while Neymar tends to underperform). Meanwhile, the legendary partnership between Suarez and Messi<\/strong> also produced and scored a high number of chances: 0.36 xG P90<\/strong> and 0.41 goals scored P90<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n