{"id":17050,"date":"2021-08-15T12:34:10","date_gmt":"2021-08-15T10:34:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/soccerment.com\/?p=17050"},"modified":"2024-06-14T12:41:11","modified_gmt":"2024-06-14T12:41:11","slug":"2021-22-premier-league-preview","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/soccerment.com\/it\/2021-22-premier-league-preview\/","title":{"rendered":"2021\/22 Premier League Preview"},"content":{"rendered":"

Premier League’s Game 1 didn’t disappoint and seems the perfect appetiser for an exciting season. We are expecting an engaging hunt for the title, with Manchester City, Chelsea and Liverpool as the frontrunners, while Manchester United could fill the fourth UCL spot. Tottenham, Leicester and Arsenal will likely be involved in the fight for European spots, but we would expect some surprise to materialise this season too (we would go with Brighton). At the bottom of the table, the situation seems to be incredibly intricate, with the newly promoted teams likely battling with Crystal Palace, Newcastle, Burnley and Southampton.<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n
<\/div>\n\n\n\n

2020\/21 Recap<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The hunt for the title<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Capitalising on Liverpool\u2019s problems, after a difficult start to the season Manchester City managed to put in a streak of 15 consecutive wins, which allowed the club to distance themselves from the rest of the pack and convincingly win the league with 86 points, 12 clear of Manchester United. Our Expected Points<\/em> model confirmed the outcome of the 2020\/21 Premier League: Manchester City<\/strong><\/a> were first with 80.8 xPoints, thus outperforming xP by 5.2 points. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Manchester United\u2019s strong start in the first half of the season gave Solskjaer\u2019s side a boost in morale and a lead against the likes of Chelsea and Liverpool, however it wasn\u2019t enough to truly challenge for the title. Manchester United<\/strong><\/a> (54 SPR) ranked 4th<\/sup> for xPoints, outperforming xP by 10.1 points, partly explained by their extremely encouraging offensive results (73 goals and 65.7 xG). The partnership between front players<\/a> has been very proficient in the cases of Cavani, Rashford and B. Fernandes. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
2021\/22 Premier League Table and Expected Points<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n
<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Battle for European spots<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

<\/strong>The struggles which Liverpool (55 SPR) and Chelsea (55 SPR) have gone through have made the battle for Champions League football a lot more uncertain than what could have been predicted, especially considering the exceptional seasons of Leicester (51 SPR) and West Ham<\/strong><\/a> (65 points in front of 58.0 xP, 49 SPR). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

With regards to Liverpool<\/strong><\/a>, we note that Alisson<\/a> achieved above-average results in all relevant metrics (72.4% saves success ratio, 65.5% close-range saves ratio, 92.9% long-range saves ratio and 0.15 goals prevented per xG on target). These stats contributed to a gap of 8.4 between xGA and goals conceded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Among the top teams, Chelsea<\/strong><\/a> <\/strong>was the only underperformer of xPoints (67 points in front of 75.9 xP). Werner<\/a> did not exhibit his finishing skills (6 goals vs 12.7 xG), strongly contributing to a 9.3 gap between xG and goals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Leicester<\/strong><\/a>\u2019s outperformance of xG (68 goals, 59.8 xG) translated into an xP outperformance of 7.6 (58.4 xPoints), despite Vardy\u2019s underperformance of xG (15 goals vs 19.2 xG).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tottenham<\/strong><\/a> (51 SPR) parted ways with Mourinho before the Carabao cup final despite a strong start of the season for Spurs. They were the first team in terms of xG outperformance (10.0): the credit for this outstanding result goes mostly to Kane and Son<\/a>, who respectively scored 23 goals in front of 20.2 xG and 17 goals in front of 10.8 xG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Arsenal<\/strong><\/a> (51 SPR) had one of the worst Premier League seasons in recent history, staying on the right part of the table for the majority of the season. The season\u2019s finale however showed some promise, thanks to a string of positive results which saw them end with 61 points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bielsa\u2019s Leeds delivered on their return to the Premier league playing entertaining and high-intensity football achieving a surprising 9th place finish totalling 59 points (52 SPR). Leeds United<\/strong><\/a> registered the largest outperformance in terms of xGA (8.8): this can be explained by the outstanding season of the sweeper-keeper<\/em> Meslier<\/a> (87.2% distribution accuracy with 37% of passes going forward), who was the best goalkeeper for SPR (61) in the 2020\/21 EPL season. He prevented 0.09 goals per xG on target, with high saves success ratios (72.8% total), both for close-range (64.2%) and long-range shots (92.6%). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Everton<\/strong><\/a> had a very positive start of the season but couldn\u2019t manage to keep the pace with the frontrunners finishing 10th with 59 points (50 SPR). They were the first team in terms of xPoints outperformance (+12.6), mainly due to a significant difference between xGA and goals against (7.0).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Aston Villa<\/strong><\/a>\u2019s start to the season, which put players such as Grealish and Watkins under the spotlight, seemed to put the Villains in contention for European football (52 SPR), however Grealish\u2019s injury proved a major blow for their European ambitions. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Mid table & relegation scrap<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Crystal Palace<\/strong><\/a> calmly avoided relegation (46 SPR), however they were the 3rd worst team in terms of xP (37.3).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite finishing 16th, Brighton<\/strong><\/a> had an extremely convincing season performance-wise (50 SPR). Brighton actually ranked 5th in the Premier League for xP (63.4) marginally behind Man U. Such underperformance is unlikely to repeat itself, therefore Brighton candidates itself as the biggest surprise of next season<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Southampton<\/strong><\/a> (49 SPR) had a strong start to the season but struggled as the season went on managing only 14 points in their last 21 games (4W, 2D, 15L). It is interesting to notice that Southampton <\/strong>had the worst underperformance in terms of xGA (-11.8). This outcome was partly due to McCarthy<\/a>\u2019s mediocre season, in which he recorded a poor 62.2% saves success ratio.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A very poor start with a sizeable underperformance of xP have meant that Sheffield<\/strong><\/a> (45 SPR) have been straight away in jeopardy of relegation. The inability to finish chances has proven fatal (21 goals in front of 34.3 xG). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

West Bromwich<\/strong><\/a> struggled to achieve a string of results too, with Bilic receiving the sack with the arrival of 2021, Sam Allardyce who took his place didn\u2019t manage to save them (45 SPR). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fulham<\/strong><\/a> (49 SPR) have the biggest remorse out of the relegated teams, during the year they have shown to be capable of playing an organized possession-based football where forwards also have the freedom to try one-on-ones (they were the 1st team for completed dribbles).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Players’ advanced metrics<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Among the players with more than 900 minutes, Mohamed Salah registered the highest amount of Expected Goals per 90 minutes (0.59), with Vardy and Kane completing the podium, with 0.58 and 0.56 xG P90 respectively. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another Liverpool forward came on top on non-penalty xG per 90 minutes: Diogo Jota, with 0.56 (Gareth Bale 2nd with 0.55 and Dominic Calvert-Lewin 3rd with 0.52).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On Expected Assists per 90 minutes, Kevin De Bruyne (Man City) and Jack Grealish (A. Villa) registered the top amounts (0.31), but Bruno Fernandes (Man Utd) and Raphinha (Leeds) came close (0.30).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finally, when it comes to our newly-developed metric xOVA (Expected Offensive Value Added), Kevin De Bruyne registered by far the highest number on a per-90-minute basis last season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n