Winter Transfer Shockwaves: Breaking Down the 7 Biggest Moves of the Window

Key Insights:

Kvaratskhelia’s bold switch from Napoli to PSG: will he thrive under the Parisian lights?
Nico González and Omar Marmoush: Manchester City’s surprising double move to boost their attack.
Jhon Durán joins Al Nassr: a rising star heading to Saudi Arabia’s ambitious project.
Rashford’s unexpected move to Aston Villa: a fresh start or a risky gamble?
Mathys Tel’s leap from Bayern Munich to Tottenham: the perfect fit for Postecoglou’s style?
Santiago Giménez’s arrival at AC Milan: a striker built for Serie A’s tactical demands.

The Winter Market Recap: Bold Moves, Big Expectations

The January transfer window never fails to surprise, and this year was no exception. While some clubs opted for strategic depth, others made headline-grabbing moves that could reshape the landscape of European football. From Kvaratskhelia’s sensational switch to PSG to Rashford’s unexpected transfer to Aston Villa, these deals aren’t just about big fees, they represent tactical shifts, fresh challenges, and high-stakes bets.

In this edition of the Soccerment newsletter, we dive deep into the seven most impactful transfers of the winter window. For each player, we’ve crafted detailed radar charts to highlight their unique statistical profiles, providing insights into how they might fit into their new teams. Whether it’s the dynamism of Nico González, the versatility of Mathys Tel, or the clinical finishing of Santiago Giménez, we break down what makes these signings stand out and what challenges they might face.

Get ready to explore the data behind the deals that could define the second half of the season.

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: From Napoli to PSG

Analyzing Kvaratskhelia’s radar chart, compared with the One-to-One Explorer metrics from Europe’s top five leagues, we notice that he doesn’t top any single metric. However, he stands out in four key areas:

Shots per 90 minutes: 3.6, indicating his consistent threat on goal.
Percentage of team touches in the final third: 20%, highlighting his role as a key figure in Napoli’s attacking phases.
Expected Threat (xT) generated from carries per 90 minutes: 0.11, showcasing his ability to advance play effectively.
Ball retention rate: 70.6%, reflecting strong possession skills in high-pressure areas.

PSG secured the Georgian winger for €70 million during the winter transfer window. But was this hefty investment necessary to enhance their squad? To answer this, we’ve visualized two scatter plots comparing PSG’s current wingers with the former Napoli star, based on the One-to-One Explorer metrics.

In the first scatter plot, we analyze xT generated per 90 minutes and successful dribbles per 90 minutes. Interestingly, Kvaratskhelia ranks lower in both metrics compared to PSG’s current wingers, Dembélé and Barcola, who are having standout seasons in Paris. This suggests that while Kvaratskhelia has undeniable talent, his direct impact in creating threats and beating defenders may not surpass what PSG already has.

Moving to the second scatter plot, we focus on xOVA (Expected Offensive Value Added) per 90 minutes and non-penalty xG (npxG) per 90 minutes. Once again, Kvaratskhelia trails behind Barcola and Dembélé. In fact, PSG’s No. 10 ranks second only to Serge Gnabry across Europe’s top five leagues for these metrics. This highlights not just Kvaratskhelia’s challenges but also the exceptional form of PSG’s current wide attackers. Arguably, Ligue 1 defenses are less solid than those in Serie A, so it might be reasonable to expect Kvara’s stats to improve in Paris.

Santiago Gimenez: From PSV To AC Milan

Analyzing Gimenez’s radar chart, compared to All-round Finishers across Europe’s top seven leagues (including the Eredivisie and Primeira Liga), several standout metrics emerge:

Touches in the opponent’s box per 90 minutes: 7.7, underlining his active presence in high-danger areas.
xA (expected assists) received per 90 minutes: 0.67, showcasing his positioning and ability to get into assist-worthy spaces.
Non-penalty xG (npxG) per 90 minutes: 0.63, indicating his efficiency in generating quality scoring chances.

His weaker points include:

xOVA per 90 minutes: A lower value, suggesting less contribution to overall offensive buildup.
Percentage of touches in the final third: Indicating limited involvement outside the penalty area.

AC Milan secured Gimenez for €32 million, after letting go of Alvaro Morata, which left only Tammy Abraham as the primary striker. This made Gimenez a strategic signing to bolster Milan’s attack.

In the first scatter plot, we compare All-round Finishers and Target Men from the top seven leagues, focusing on xOVA per 90 minutes and npxG per 90 minutes. Gimenez shows low values in terms of offensive buildup but strong numbers for npxG. In contrast, Abraham, while slightly less prolific in npxG, plays a more central role in Milan’s offensive maneuvers.

The second scatter plot examines Offensive AERO and touches in the opponent’s box per 90 minutes. Here, Gimenez ranks among the top, reinforcing his profile as a traditional center-forward, highly active in the penalty area.

Combining these metrics, Gimenez emerges as the pure finisher Milan lacked in the first half of the season. His impact was immediate, scoring on his Serie A debut against Empoli, securing a crucial victory for the Rossoneri.

Omar Marmoush: From Eintracht Frankfurt To Manchester City

Turning to Omar Marmoush, we start with his radar chart compared with One-to-One Explorer metrics from Europe’s top five leagues. Marmoush excels in:

Non-penalty shots per 90 minutes: An impressive 4.7, reflecting his aggressive shooting tendency.
Touches in the final third: Indicating active involvement in advanced positions.
Successful dribbles per 90 minutes: Showcasing his ability to beat defenders consistently.
npxG per 90 minutes: A strong indicator of his goal-scoring potential.

Areas where he struggles include:

xA in open play per 90 minutes: Suggesting limited creativity for teammates.
Possession retention rate: Highlighting potential issues with ball security under pressure.

Manchester City invested €75 million in Marmoush after his stellar Bundesliga campaign with Frankfurt, where he tallied 15 goals and 9 assists in 17 appearances. Given City’s inconsistent season, Guardiola sought reinforcements to rejuvenate the squad.

In the first scatter plot, we compare Marmoush with other One-to-One Explorers from Europe’s top leagues and his new City teammates. While Marmoush doesn’t outperform City’s wingers in xT per 90 minutes, he matches Savinho and surpasses Grealish in successful dribbles per 90 minutes, highlighting his dynamism in one-on-one situations.

The second scatter plot focuses on xOVA per 90 minutes and npxG per 90 minutes. Here, Marmoush shines, surpassing all but Savinho in xOVA and leading in npxG. This underscores his potential value to Guardiola, particularly in enhancing City’s attacking efficiency through his goal-scoring capabilities.

Nico Gonzalez: From Porto To Manchester City

Analyzing Nico González’s radar chart, compared with Roaming Playmakers from Europe’s top seven leagues, we immediately notice his standout metrics:

Possession retention rate: 86%, showcasing his reliability in maintaining possession under pressure.
Short pass accuracy: 90%, reflecting his precision in quick, short combinations.

However, he shows weaker performance in:

xA (Expected Assists) in open play per 90 minutes: Indicating limited creative output.
Tackles + interceptions per 1,000 touches: Suggesting room for improvement in defensive contributions.

Manchester City secured the Spanish talent for €60 million, aiming to find a reliable replacement for Rodri, whose absence has posed significant challenges for Guardiola’s side. González is expected to take command of the midfield and restore City’s fluid, possession-dominant style.

In the first scatter plot, we compare City’s current Roaming Playmakers with González, focusing on progressive passes per 90 minutes and possession retention rate:

City’s midfielders excel in possession retention, with González ranking just behind Kovačić in progressive passes.
However, he does not reach the top-tier values observed among the best Roaming Playmakers across Europe’s top seven leagues.

The second scatter plot shifts focus to the defensive phase, analyzing counter-pressing actions and interceptions per 1000 opponent touches:

González ranks above average and better than Lewis and Gundogan for tackles and interceptions but behind Kovacic
In counter-pressing actions, he performs above average, similarly to Kovacic and Gundogan, and better than Lewis

Mathys Tel: From Bayern Munich To Tottenham

Staying in the Premier League, we shift focus to Mathys Tel, the new attacking winger at Tottenham, on loan from Bayern Munich. Analyzing his radar chart against One-to-One Explorer metrics from Europe’s top five leagues, we observe:

Non-penalty shots per 90 minutes: 3.5, highlighting his frequent attempts on goal.
Possession retention rate: 76%, reflecting solid ball security.
Successful dribble rate: 58%, showcasing his ability to beat defenders.

His weaker metrics include:

xT (Expected Threat) generated from passes and carries per 90 minutes: Low values in both areas.
Percentage of touches in the final third: Indicating limited involvement in advanced attacking zones.

Tel joins Spurs from Bayern, where he struggled for playing time under Kompany. In London, he aims to help Tottenham climb from the lower half of the Premier League table (currently 14th).

The first scatter plot compares Tel’s overall xT generated per 90 minutes and successful dribbles per 90 minutes:

He outperforms his new Tottenham teammates in dribbling.
However, his xT generated per 90 minutes remains below average compared to One-to-One Explorers in Europe’s top five leagues.

In the second scatter plot, we analyze xOVA (Expected Offensive Value Added) per 90 minutes and non-penalty xG (npxG) per 90 minutes:

Tel ranks first among his new teammates for npxG.
He is second only to Werner in xOVA, underlining his potential as an impactful offensive player.

Jhon Duran: From Aston Villa To Al-Nassr

Next, we analyze Jhon Durán, who left the Premier League to join Al-Nassr in the Saudi Pro League. After selling Talisca to Fenerbahçe, Al-Nassr invested €77 million in the 21-year-old Colombian to partner Cristiano Ronaldo.

Durán’s radar chart, compared with All-round Finishers from Europe’s top five leagues, highlights:

Non-penalty goals per 90 minutes: 0.99, an exceptional scoring rate.
Non-penalty shots per 90 minutes: Strong numbers, showcasing his goal-scoring instinct.
Percentage of touches in the final third: Reflecting active involvement in attacking zones.

His main weakness is:

xA in open play per 90 minutes: Limited creative output for teammates.

In the first scatter plot, comparing Durán with strikers from the top five leagues and the Saudi Pro League, we focus on xOVA per 90 minutes and npxG per 90 minutes:

Durán ranks just below the top performers, with impressive stats in both metrics.

The second scatter plot evaluates offensive AERO and touches inside the opponent’s box per 90 minutes:

Durán outperforms Cristiano Ronaldo in aerial duels.
He ranks below Ronaldo for touches in the penalty area
While not among the absolute best, he ranks above average for both metrics.

Marcus Rashford: From Manchester United To Aston Villa

Following Durán’s departure, Aston Villa secured Marcus Rashford on loan—a player eager to redeem himself after a challenging period at Manchester United.

Analyzing Rashford’s radar chart compared with One-to-One Explorers from Europe’s top five leagues reveals:

Possession retention rate: 70.4%, one of his better metrics.
npxG per shot: 0.12, indicating moderate shot quality.

However, most of his metrics are significantly below average, reflecting his current poor form.

The first scatter plot examines xT generated per 90 minutes and successful dribbles per 90 minutes:

Rashford ranks among the lowest compared to One-to-One Explorers from Europe’s top leagues.

In the second scatter plot, focusing on xOVA per 90 minutes and npxG per 90 minutes:

Rashford remains in the lower-middle tier for both metrics.

Rashford will need to prove that Manchester United might regret letting him go permanently. The question remains: can Unai Emery revive the dynamic winger we’ve come to expect from Rashford in previous seasons?

Conclusions

This winter transfer window has brought some surprising moves and strategic reinforcements across Europe and beyond. From PSG’s bold investment in Kvaratskhelia to Manchester City’s dual signings of Marmoush and Gonzalez, clubs have targeted specific weaknesses, hoping for immediate impact.

Now, we want to hear from you:

Which of these transfers do you think will have the biggest impact for the remainder of the season?
Which signing do you consider the least necessary or potentially ineffective?
Who do you think will surprise us the most—perhaps an underrated transfer that will outperform expectations?
Finally, in your opinion, what was the most important transfer of this winter window?

Join the discussion and let us know your thoughts!

Thanks!

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